Discuție Top Gun: Maverick
Discuție → Filme artistice → Top Gun: Maverick → Generale
Early box office notes
postat de către DRDMovieMusingsSTAFFMOD pe data de 30 mai 2022 la ora 2:28AM
Top Gun had a budget of $15M and generated $356.8M, paying a splendid $23.79 revenue for each budget dollar.
Top Gun: Maverick had a budget of >10x the 1986 first installment, $170M. To repeat the profitability, it'll have to generate over $4Bn....not going to happen.
The average ROI on the first sequel (2nd installment) in a franchise is 35% of the 1st installment, so 35% of $23.79 is $8.33, which would be total box office of $1.4Bn, which is well within reach.
In my database of over 2400 titles dating back to 1924, I've got 42 titles that have pulled in upwards of $1Bn - of note:
- first was Titanic, 1997
- I've got eight titles in 2019 that topped $1Bn the last full year before the shut down
- I've got five titles that have topped $2Bn
- I've no title that hit $3Bn (Avengers: Endgame and Avatar both approached $2.8Bn)
Judging by the reviews thus far, this seems like a good movie for the big screen, at least, in terms of action. American jingoism may be too low to buoy this up far beyond those seeking some 80s nostalgia, but 1) the action component, 2) people wanting to be out and amongst other people, and 3) that nostalgia factor, should come together to do solid business.
Last note - opening weekend was good, at $248M, compare that with, say, The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, which put up $250M en route to a final box office of $1.1Bn, which, waddya know? is roughly in the ballpark with our above estimate for TG:M of $1.4Bn. I'd say it's shaping up better for TG:M because TLotR:RotK had to compete for movie-goers dollars with a few action movies, while I don't expect there is going to be much competition in theatres to slow down ticket sales.
Let's see where TG:M finally lands.
Răspuns de DRDMovieMusings
pe data de 5 iunie 2022 la ora 3:22PM
TG: M has surpassed $500M worldwide - it's now paid back $3.23 in revenue for each budget dollar.
Still hasn't released across all global markets yet, so our outlook (paying $8.33 on revenues over $1.4Bn) is not dead yet.
Sequels are curious, from a business perspective, because they seldom every make anywhere near as much money as their respective first installments (I've crunched some numbers, if I could post a graph on this site, you'd see it very clearly - I'll write an entry on my blog at some point, because pictures are often worth thousands of words). Making a sequel almost always costs more in budget, which is the first challenge to repeating ROI. Expectations can also kill ticket sales - the first installment is usually a big surprise, as people brought little expectations; but then, sequels must live up to the hype, and it can be tough to catch lightning in a bottle twice. At any rate, Top Gun (1986) paid $23.79 - if TG: M (2022) pays anywhere near even our target of one third of that, producers will be ecstatic. You know, law of diminished returns or something.
Răspuns de DRDMovieMusings
pe data de 17 iunie 2022 la ora 5:07PM
Now at $806M, paying $4.74, and counting...
Răspuns de DRDMovieMusings
pe data de 22 iunie 2022 la ora 1:29AM
Now at $901,900,000 paying $5.30...
Răspuns de DRDMovieMusings
pe data de 25 iunie 2022 la ora 5:24PM
$926.6M, paying $5.45....
Răspuns de DRDMovieMusings
pe data de 26 iunie 2022 la ora 6:30PM
$1,006,423,000.00 paying $5.92
Răspuns de DRDMovieMusings
pe data de 30 iunie 2022 la ora 3:54PM
$1,021,000,000 paying $6.01
Răspuns de DRDMovieMusings
pe data de 4 iulie 2022 la ora 2:29PM
$1,108,520,367 paying $6.52
Răspuns de DRDMovieMusings
pe data de 15 iulie 2022 la ora 2:29PM
$1,191,900,127 paying $7.01 - not sure if it's going to get to $8.33, but this ain't terrible!
I didn't take snapshots at regular time intervals, so the current logarithmical target of $1.25Bn, paying $7.38 isn't the sharpest...but let's see how it goes over the next two weeks.
Răspuns de DRDMovieMusings
pe data de 18 iulie 2022 la ora 5:50PM
$1,238,831,332 paying $7.29
Răspuns de DRDMovieMusings
pe data de 21 iulie 2022 la ora 6:31PM
$1.244Bn, paying $7.32
Răspuns de DRDMovieMusings
pe data de 26 iulie 2022 la ora 4:55PM
$1.284Bn paying $7.55
Răspuns de DRDMovieMusings
pe data de 31 iulie 2022 la ora 4:29PM
$1.321Bn paying $7.77
Răspuns de DRDMovieMusings
pe data de 8 august 2022 la ora 11:11AM
$1.353Bn paying $7.96 which is 33.5% of original's pay.
Still in theatres though - is there another $46.8M out there to hit this pay target of $8.33?
Let's see...
Răspuns de DRDMovieMusings
pe data de 14 august 2022 la ora 3:55PM
Picked up another $25.5M, bringing total to $1.378Bn, paying $8.11 which is 34.1% of original's pay.
Răspuns de DRDMovieMusings
pe data de 19 august 2022 la ora 3:58PM
Picked up another $3.4M, bringing total to $1.382Bn, paying $8.13, which is 34.2% of original pay, and lands within less than 1% margin of error to target pay of $8.33.
Because, you know, numbers.
That said, while (I think) it's scheduled to start streaming next week, it does appear to still be in theatres. Is there another $18M out there that can push it over $1.4Bn?