Discuss Black Widow
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Box office bomb
posted by DRDMovieMusingsSTAFFMOD on August 27, 2021 at 8:03 PM
Captain America: The First Avenger generated revenues of $370,569,774 over a budget of $140M, for an ROI of $2.65, beating out Thor's $2.96 to become the worst-performing film in the Avengers universe...until Black Widow.
Thus far, Black Widow has only managed to muster $369,811,043 at the box office, over a budget of $200M, for a paltry ROI of $1.85 and it's unlikely it will catch CA:TFA's ROI.
Is it because it was released after Avengers: Endgame?
- Endgame paid $7.86;
- Spider-man: Far From Home paid $7.07; and
- Captain Marvel paid $7.42
All consistent, splendid numbers for a collection that averages $4.99
Is it because the lead is a woman? Again, Captain Marvel outpaid the universe average; and over in DC Comics, Wonder Woman paid $5.52 so, nope, that ain't it.
It's got to be a combination of covid doldrums and dual distribution, being released both in theatres as well as on Disney+ streaming at the same time.
Of course, we all know ROI is not the sole (or even the best) reflection of how good or bad a movie is; circumstances not infrequently come into play, as appears to be the case here.
Reply by Midi-chlorian_Count
on August 28, 2021 at 4:04 AM
Disney confirmed that it had made $60M on it's first week on Disney+.
https://variety.com/2021/digital/box-office/black-widow-disney-plus-opening-analysis-1235017115/
Don't think they released any subsequent figures and we can speculate that the streaming figures nosedived after that initial week. However given we have been given that $60M you'd need to take that into account...
Plus I don't think ROI or "return on investment" is the correct term here. Isn't there some formula (think it's double the budget but could be wrong) to work out the profit point based upon the percentage cinema chains take of the box office and the additional marketing costs of the film?
Given that streaming chunk for BW won't be subject to that heavy cinema cut, it probably pushes up the film's "profitability" (if it even reached that) somewhat.
Reply by tmdb53400018
on August 28, 2021 at 10:31 AM
I forgot that these new Marvel joints are viewable on Disney+....
I'm leery about setting foot into theatres right now.
Reply by DRDMovieMusings
on August 28, 2021 at 11:27 PM
After it completes its run in theatres, I'll circle back and see what their final tally is, and see if they include the streaming number in their "box office" total.
Kinda, yeah! The "Insider's Formula" is gross divided by 2 minus budget (G/2-B), but I don't like that formula for a couple of reasons: 1) gross is essentially unknown until the theatrical run is over, so, how do you talk about "the numbers" when we don't know what the revenue might ever be? 2) We also never know how much a studio may spend on marketing, so I can't really compare apples to apples when this movie had $40 million in marketing and that movie had $4 million in marketing.
So, I just simplified and standardized my number as simply revenue over budget, knowing that, most of the time, a movie has gotta make 2x budget, or $2 for each budget dollar, to cover not only the budget but also any marketing spend, which is almost never publicized anyway, so it's always just a guess.
Great suggestion! I do NOT know how much the cinema cut is of ticket sales, but I do know it's not much, which why they try to make it up with the overpriced concessions. Also, spending $30 on the stream makes money above cinema IF there are one or two viewers - if you invite the gang over, and there are six people watching it, they're losing money over what they'd have collected at the box office. They came up with that number, $30 (or whatever it is) with some sharp math, but it's still a bet.
Also, the lawsuits that Scarlett Johansson and Emma Thompson filed indicate that the streaming with theatre at the same time angle was shifty/shady, and Disney+ is negotiating settlements to avoid losing in the courts, so that streaming "profitability" was kinda off the books, so to speak, and thus not likely to have factored heavily in how they reported revenues (I think "box office" is going to be firmly defined as theatre ticket sales, excluding any other distribution (which, to date, was video after the theatre run; streaming gets more complicated because it is during the the theatre run. The entire industry has a lot yet to figure out about the internet of things; they are rather behind the music industry, the taxi industry, the hotel industry, etc....)
Reply by Innovator
on August 29, 2021 at 4:55 AM
It's hardly a bomb. It made $370,503,407 world wide (so far as it hasn't opened everywhere it's supposed to yet) plus the $60 mil it reportedly made on Disney+. I don't know what the budget is, but if it's like the previous Marvel titles (that's not an Avengers movie), it should be around $200 mil. With the current total of over $430 mil, that's over 2x ROI it had to get to not be considered a box office bomb by anyone in the industry.
Reply by Mon-Star
on August 29, 2021 at 10:04 AM
As of last week, Black Widow has grossed $367M worldwide, and more than $125M via Disney+ Premier Access purchases.
Reply by DRDMovieMusings
on August 29, 2021 at 6:31 PM
You may be right!
Here's the list of twenty Avenger movies I have in my db, sorted by my pure ROI
Title Paying
The average ROI of this list is $5.22
If your numbers are correct, and it has pulled in around $430M, that would mean it's currently paying ~$2.15 - sure, that's more than the $1.85 I'm showing on revenues of $370M (last checked).
On a budget of $200M, Black Widow needs to pull in $530M just to match CA:TFA's return of $2.65 - if it does, great, it's no longer the lowest performing Avengers movie, which would be a terrific accomplishment. But I don't see that happening.
So, is it a bomb?
Either way, remember, we all know that box office is neither the best nor only way to evaluate a movie! There are lots of great movies that did poorly, and silly movies that made a crapton of money. My quantifying _Black Widow'_s ROI performance relative to the rest of the Avengers franchise is not a comment on whether it was a good movie or not. Not at all.
In fact, given all the external factors pulling the numbers down that have nothing to do with the movie itself (people not going to theatres and the concurrent streaming option), one can make the argument that it coulda/woulda/shoulda outperformed CA:TFA and perhaps even Thor, neither of which had the kind of landscape with which Black Widow had to contend.
:-)
PS - I just saw this article today - https://thehustle.co/the-family-business-that-owns-a-share-of-the-7b-james-bond-franchise/ - you'll see both my approach AND the Insider's Formula used!
We can also observe that, roughly, for this movie, total cost was ~4x production budget, which leads me to consider playing with a new formula, B4, as a break-even revenue target, and G-B4, to come up with profitability. I'll see how closely it matches the data I have.
Reply by Nexus71
on October 30, 2021 at 9:37 PM
It was never going to get it's money backed it bombed with a estimated budget of 200 million(probably higher) you have to multiple this with 2 so the actual production budget +promotion distribution etc is 400 million add to that the extra interest Disney has to pay investors for shelving this movie for over more than 2 years and the that budget is inflated to well over 400 million. And even if it made over 400 million Worldwide it still doesn't mean Disney is home free because Disney only take around 50-60 % of the earnings in de domestic US market and abroad these percentages are even lower with Disney taking as little as 25-30% of the overseas earnings .So no Black Widow wasn't profitable it bombed from a financial perspective
Reply by Innovator
on October 30, 2021 at 9:49 PM
It actually made well over 400 million if you add the Disney+ earnings. Absolutely no one in the industry has called it a bomb.
Reply by Nexus71
on October 30, 2021 at 10:09 PM
That is because most of the established media and trade papers are either in Disney's backpocket or they support the Marvel ideology of " bullshit inclusiveness and diversity" so they are not going to criticize a female centric superhero movie because the woke idiots on Twitter calling out for the cancecellation of anyone who dares to say anything negative about this film And no it made 400 million but you have to brake that number down into the earnings from Disney+ of which Disney takes 100% an average 55 % of the domestic theaters take and let's be generous 30% of the overseas theaters earnings (which usually is where most money is made) so with an overall budget of somewhere between 450-500 million Black Widow lost money or it barely broke even .
Reply by Innovator
on October 30, 2021 at 10:16 PM
Except the Disney+ earnings weren't paid to anyone else, and no one knows what the ultimate take was from that as they only announced the first weekend's earnings. And the established media has been pretty negative on Shang-Chi and brutal to Eternals especially, so I would be hard pressed to say anyone has been in Disney's backpocket this year.
Reply by DRDMovieMusings
on October 30, 2021 at 10:21 PM
Compared to the average movie, sure - but, as I've parsed to nauseum above, compared to the Marvel Avengers universe, it underperformed. Perhaps I used "bomb" as click bait to stoke the conversation, and it's not really a bomb, but they wanted upwards of $500M coming in on this, and they aren't getting it.
Reply by Nexus71
on October 30, 2021 at 10:24 PM
Well one should take the total amount of viewers and multiply it by $30 So if like 6 million subscribers paid 30 bucks to see it it earned Disney 180 million bucks But i doubt it had like 6 million paying subscribers considering all the subscribers could see the movie 3 months later for free. Besides if Disney really made that amount of money the trade papers would be full of articles describing what a huge financial succes BW was for Disney+ .And that hasn't happened plus Disney has a long track record of "artificially inflating their numbers"
Reply by Innovator
on October 30, 2021 at 10:27 PM
The trade papers did have articles describing Black Widows success on Disney+ just from the first weekend's take alone. They didn't report on it more, cause Disney never released more numbers after that (cause y'know the lawsuit).
Reply by Nexus71
on October 30, 2021 at 10:45 PM
according to IMDB the worldwide take of BW is currently at $397.6 million $183.6 million is from the US & Canada so even in Canada Disney wil not get the average 55% of the earnings so let's say half of that 183.6 million goes to Disney so that is $91.8 million .The foreign market earnings are $ 214 million of which Disney at best receives 30% that is $ 64 million in total so for the overall theater release BW earned Disney $155.8 million ad to that the very optimistic 6 million paying subscribers earning $180 million that is $335.8 million in total minus let's say the lower estimate what BW actually cost Disney so $450 million that still leaves a loss of $ 114.2 million most movies losing that amount of money are considered a bomb so yeah it bombed.
Reply by Innovator
on October 30, 2021 at 11:08 PM
The formula is less then 2x ROI for a bomb by industry standards, with the Disney+ earnings for just the first weakened they earned above that. The movie had a budget of $200 mil. So everything else you said is just what ifs and hyperbole.